Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test of 1.0946 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 30 pips.

The disappointing eurozone retail sales data released the day before and an emergency Federal Reserve meeting—likely prompted by problems in the U.S. stock market—contributed to the dollar's rise against the euro. The dollar may continue to strengthen in the near term as the challenges many countries face due to U.S.-imposed trade tariffs are expected to intensify.

Today, the news calendar is quiet, with France's trade balance being the only notable release. This indicator, reflecting the difference between a country's exports and imports, is a key measure of France's economic health but has little direct impact on the forex market or the euro itself. A positive balance (exports exceeding imports) supports the national currency, creates jobs, and contributes to economic growth. A negative balance indicates that a country imports more than it exports.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buy the euro today upon reaching the price area of 1.0984 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1074. At 1.1074, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

Also, I plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests at the 1.0946 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.0984 and 1.1074 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0946 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0858, at which point I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move from that level). Selling pressure could return quickly today.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.

Scenario #2:

Also, I plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0984 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward 1.0946 and 1.0858 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.