It all started, as usual, with alarming headlines. The United States and China were once again clashing over tariffs, fentanyl, and pride. It seemed as though the global economy was about to scream in distress, much like a broker who sees his portfolio after a Federal Reserve speech. But this time, it ended in embraces. Trump and Xi met, spoke, and agreed that, since the trade war was not yielding results, it was time to declare a truce.
Analysts at Raymond James, a group whose computers only power on at the mention of "positive," proclaimed that all was well. The 90-day suspensions of tariffs have now become a pleasant ritual. China pauses its retaliatory tariffs while the US eases the pressure.
Officially, both parties refer to this as a step toward stability. In reality, the US desperately wants Chinese rare earth elements, which are vital for everything from iPhones to electric cars, without which they turn into worthless metal. Meanwhile, China, tired of being "the master of materials but not marketing," has decided to loosen its grip a bit and play the role of a good neighbor.
For the average person, this all sounds like a family dispute. America has promised not to raise tariffs, while China vows to buy some soybeans to put smiles back on American farmers' faces. And all of this is set to last until the next crisis, which could take place in April 2026.
The irony is that all parties are satisfied, yet nobody believes this will last. Therefore, the meeting can be characterized as "overall positive." In a landscape where a constructive outlook is often defined by the lack of fresh controversies, this is the primary outcome we can expect.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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