On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday resumed its decline after rebounding from the 100.0% retracement level of 1.3586 last week. Thus, I expect the decline to continue towards the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3482. A rebound of quotes from this level will favor the pound and a slight rise toward 1.3586. A consolidation of the pair's rate below 1.3482 will allow us to expect a decline towards the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425.

The wave situation remains "bearish," strange as that may sound after two weeks of growth. The last completed upward wave broke the highs of the two previous waves, but the last downward wave also broke all previous lows. The news background has played a huge role in shaping precisely the waves we have seen in recent weeks. In my view, the news background has already turned the pair toward the bulls, so the trend may again become "bullish" in the near future. In the coming days, a downward wave is possible, which would be a corrective pullback.

On Monday, as we have already seen, the news background was absent. Against an empty calendar, the bears launched a weak attack, but the nearest level at 1.3482 may already stop them. Today, and this week overall, chart analysis will be decisive. There will be few news releases, with only Jerome Powell's speech on Friday potentially stirring the market. However, the speech will take place Friday evening, and until then, there is little to trade on. Traders are practically ignoring negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Donald Trump is not introducing new tariffs, only continuing to criticize Jerome Powell, demanding that he cut interest rates and even threatening to sue him. This information is unlikely to help the bears build on their success, so I expect at most a corrective pullback.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the dollar after forming a "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator, but today a "bullish" divergence has already formed on the same indicator, allowing us to expect a resumption of growth towards the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,101, while the number of short positions rose by 13,891. However, the sharp decline in interest in the pound according to COT reports does not reflect the real market picture, since interest in the dollar is also falling. The gap between the number of long and short positions is now essentially 74,000 versus 113,000. Yet, as we can see, the pound continues to grow.

In my view, the pound still faces downside prospects. The news background for the U.S. dollar in the first six months of the year was terrible, but it is gradually beginning to improve. Trade tensions are easing, the most important deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy in the second quarter will recover thanks to tariffs and various kinds of investment into the U.S. At the same time, the prospects of Fed monetary policy easing in the second half of the year could create significant pressure on the dollar.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Change in Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).

On August 19, the economic calendar contains only two far from the most important entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment today will be very weak, and only in the second half of the day.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading advice:

Sales of the pair were possible after a rebound from the 1.3586 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3482. These trades can be kept open today, although the target has already been nearly reached. New sales will be possible if the pair closes below 1.3482, with a target of 1.3416–1.3425. For buying the pair, a rebound from 1.3482 is required. The target is 1.3586.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.