The wave structure of GBP/USD continues to indicate the development of a bullish impulsive wave pattern. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, as the only real "culprit" remains the dollar. Demand for the dollar is falling across the entire market spectrum (in the medium term), which is why many instruments show nearly identical dynamics. At this point, wave 4 is presumably complete. If this is indeed the case, then the upward movement will continue within impulsive wave 5. Wave 4 may take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario.

It should be remembered that much on the currency market currently depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade policy. From time to time, good news does come out of the U.S., yet the market constantly keeps in mind complete economic uncertainty, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. Global tensions are rising and, as I already noted, the main "culprit" remains the dollar. That is why it takes all the "hits."

The GBP/USD pair declined by 10 basis points during Monday, by the start of the U.S. session. Since no news background is present, I believe there won't be stronger movements during the U.S. session either. However, this evening new negotiations on the Russia–Ukraine conflict will begin. This time, Ursula von der Leyen, Volodymyr Zelensky, and Donald Trump will participate in the talks. Therefore, by morning we will have new information on this matter, which will likely be more significant than Saturday's reports.

I remind you that the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska are worthless if Kyiv or Europe refuse to accept the proposed terms of a truce. And Kyiv or Europe may well block the proposed deal, since we do not know any details of the agreement between the U.S. and Russian leaders. Both sides (Kyiv and Moscow) had previously published lists of demands; however, judging by these lists, peace in Ukraine will never be achieved.

I also want to note once again that Jerome Powell's rhetoric on Friday may remain unchanged. Economists highlight that low inflation in the U.S. may still be linked to retailers selling off inventory at old prices. However, as early as next month, the Consumer Price Index may begin to rise much faster. The Producer Price Index in the latest report accelerated immediately by 0.9% month-on-month, which means that core inflation for U.S. goods should rise by the same value. Adding Trump's tariffs, which have yet to fully show their impact, we get potentially strong consumer price growth. Whether Jerome Powell will be ready to sacrifice price stability and price control for the sake of the labor market remains an open question. But personally, I see no reason for the Fed Chair to "get ahead of the curve" and promise a rate cut at Jackson Hole if, before September 17, we will still see another inflation report and another NonFarm Payrolls report.

General Conclusions

The GBP/USD wave picture remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could seriously affect the wave picture, but at the moment the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward segment of the trend are now around 1.4017. At present, I assume that the construction of corrective wave 4 is complete. Accordingly, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.

The basic principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in the market direction does not and cannot exist. Always remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.