Bitcoin is holding relatively steady above the 118,000 mark, maintaining the chances of breaking through the 120,000 level in the near term. Ethereum appears clearly aimed at updating its all-time high above 4,800 and is already trading above 4,600.

However, despite the cryptocurrency market's growth, recent data show that Bitcoin volatility has fallen to a two-year low, which is markedly different from previous growth phases. The three-month realized volatility of BTC has dropped to 29.79%, matching the levels of September 2023. In the current growth cycle, unlike past ones—when volatility regularly reached 80–100%—it has consistently stayed below the 50% threshold. This unusually low volatility raises several questions and suggests several possible interpretations.

First, it may indicate market maturation and a growing number of institutional investors whose strategies focus on long-term investments and are less prone to panic selling. Institutional players typically bring greater stability and liquidity to the market, which in turn reduces the amplitude of price fluctuations.

Second, the drop in volatility could be a sign of market consolidation ahead of the next stage of growth. After a prolonged upward movement, there often comes a phase of relative calm, during which the market digests previous gains and forms a base for further upward movement.

Third, one cannot rule out the scenario where low volatility is the calm before the storm. The history of cryptocurrency markets has many examples when sharp surges or crashes suddenly followed periods of apparent stability in prices. In this case, the current situation could be preparation for a new phase of high volatility driven by external factors or unexpected events.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any major pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, counting on the continuation of the medium-term bull market, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will buy Bitcoin if the entry point around 119,800 is reached, targeting growth to 121,400. Around 121,400, I will exit buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower boundary of 118,800 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a reversal back toward 119,800 and 121,400.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will sell Bitcoin if the entry point around 118,800 is reached, targeting a decline to 117,100. Around 117,100, I will exit sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of 119,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a reversal back toward 118,800 and 117,100.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will buy Ethereum if the entry point around 4,661 is reached, targeting growth to 4,779. Around 4,779, I will exit buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of 4,595 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a reversal back toward 4,661 and 4,779.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will sell Ethereum if the entry point around 4,595 is reached, targeting a decline to 4,502. Around 4,502, I will exit sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, it is necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of 4,661 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a reversal back toward 4,595 and 4,502.