The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is a positive sign. Even during the formation of corrective waves, the integrity of the structure is preserved, allowing for accurate forecasts. It is worth noting that wave patterns do not always look exactly like textbook examples.

The upward section of the trend continues to develop, with the news background generally supporting currencies other than the US dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Dovish expectations are growing. Trump's "One Big Law" will increase the US national debt by 3 trillion dollars, while the US president keeps raising and introducing new tariffs. The market holds a rather negative view of the first six months of Trump's presidency, even though economic growth in Q2 reached 3%.

At this stage, it can be assumed that wave 4 has been completed. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of impulsive wave 5 has begun, with potential targets extending up to the 1.25 level. Of course, the corrective structure of wave 4 could take a longer, five-wave form, but the current outlook is based on the most probable scenario.

The EUR/USD pair has seen a slight increase in value. At the moment, the pair is in a "mid-position." From current levels, the market may either continue building a corrective wave sequence, which would take the five-wave form a-b-c-d-e, or proceed with the formation of the anticipated impulsive wave 5 of the upward trend that started in January 2025.

The news background could help answer the question of what to expect next for the euro, and it points to the most likely scenario—further weakness in the US dollar. Many factors support this scenario: the expected resumption of the FOMC monetary policy easing cycle, the ongoing trade war initiated by Trump—which may soon include new tariffs even against countries already facing tariff pressure—weakness in the US labor market, rising unemployment, increasing inflation, weak ISM business activity indices, pressure on Jerome Powell (from Trump) and the entire FOMC, as well as serious concerns over the reliability of US statistical data following the dismissal of Erica McEntarfer. And what favors the dollar? Frankly, nothing comes to mind.

However, this could be a critical mistake. When absolutely all factors point in one direction, it is not uncommon to see the market move in the opposite one. We do not know how capital flows are redistributed at the commercial and central bank level. If demand for the US currency has started to rise at the interbank level for any reason, the dollar will strengthen. We can only assume a certain scenario, but nothing more. I assign an 80% probability to further growth of the pair, but it is important to remember about loss-limiting measures in case the forecast proves wrong.

General conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair continues building an upward trend section. The wave pattern still fully depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and US foreign policy. Trend targets may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to view buying opportunities with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, this is a good time for buying.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the market's direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.