Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Therefore, today's market movement will likely remain very weak and non-trending. However, it is worth remembering that Donald Trump remains President of the United States, which means new tariffs could be announced at any moment. Alternatively, the U.S. president could make another high-profile decision that would prompt the market to sell the dollar. Over the past two weeks, the market has found plenty of reasons to keep selling the U.S. currency.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is also nothing of note among Monday's fundamental events. The likelihood of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is increasing, the probability of the Federal Reserve resuming key rate cuts in September is rising, and Trump continues to impose tariffs.

For traders, the trade war remains the top priority, and last week it took on new momentum. We still believe that any trade agreements that preserve tariffs are essentially the same trade war, just "under a different guise." Deals like those concluded with the European Union or Japan are certainly beneficial for the United States. Therefore, each new such agreement may trigger growth in the U.S. dollar. However, on a broader and more fundamental level, the market will continue to take into account the new trade architecture and Donald Trump's protectionist policy.

Last week, the U.S. president made several significant and high-profile decisions, along with several loud statements. On Monday, the flow of information from the White House may continue, so it is necessary to be prepared for anything. Relaxation is not advisable while Trump is President of the United States.

Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue the growth that began last Friday. In our view, there have been enough negative events for the dollar recently for the market to maintain calm, steady selling of the U.S. currency. The euro may continue rising from the 1.1655–1.1666 area. The British pound — from the 1.3413–1.3421 area.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.