US stock markets continue to climb. The euphoria of recent days is driven by several factors at once: strong corporate earnings, impressive news from Apple, and increasingly realistic expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of such a move has already exceeded 93% after the latest jobs report once again fell short of market expectations.
The spotlight is now on trade wars. This time, US President Donald Trump made a bold move by announcing a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors. The news sparked a mixed reaction.
On the one hand, for companies building factories in the US, this is almost an open door to expansion and fresh investment. Apple immediately pledged an additional $100 billion into American manufacturers and its suppliers over the next four years. Markets responded with a 3% rise in shares, adding to the previous day's confident 5.1% jump on Wednesday.
On the other hand, restrictions on chip imports and 25% tariffs on Indian goods — following India's decision to continue purchasing oil from Russia — send a clear signal to the world: the US is ready to rapidly escalate economic pressure in line with current geopolitical goals.
This approach supports protectionist sentiment but may trigger new waves of volatility and price spikes both in the tech sector and across related industries.
Positive momentum is also supported by quarterly earnings: most major companies have managed to beat expectations, instilling confidence in the resilience of corporate profits even amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.
However, the topic of new tariffs keeps traders from fully relaxing — everyone understands that a single unexpected tweet or statement could instantly upend the market.
Technical outlook: new highs and potential turning points
From a technical standpoint, US indices are trading near new all-time highs. The S&P 500 has approached the historical zone of 6,380-6,420, while the Nasdaq 100 has consolidated above 23,400, nearing the key range of 23,600–23,800.
Both indices appear overbought based on several indicators (RSI, MACD), but momentum persists: the market believes in a combination of strong corporate earnings and upcoming monetary policy easing.
On the daily charts, the S&P 500 has key support around 6,330-6,340. As long as the index stays above this area, bulls retain the upper hand. The nearest resistance zone is at 6,410-6,425. Its breakout would pave the way for new historical targets at 6,500 and beyond.
If profit-taking occurs amid disappointment over tariff-related news, a sharp pullback toward 6,280 or lower may follow.
After a strong surge driven by Apple's rally and optimism in the chip sector, the Nasdaq 100 is showing support at 23,200, with resistance above at 23,600-23,800. Any negative news regarding semiconductors could quickly pull the index back into the 22,800-23,000 range. It is important to note that market breadth still leaves much to be desired: gains are mostly driven by megacaps, and even a minor decline in these leaders could trigger a reversal across the broader market.
Outlook: cautious bullish sentiment with political adjustment
The short-term outlook remains moderately bullish: expectations of a Fed rate cut and a stream of upbeat earnings, particularly from Big Tech, provide a foundation for further index growth toward new highs.
The S&P 500 could test the 6,410-6,425 zone in the coming days, while the Nasdaq 100 may approach 23,600-23,800.
However, the market has become even more sensitive to abrupt political decisions and trade-related news: any fresh blow to imports, especially in the high-tech sector, could sharply increase volatility.
Reversal risks are also rising: overbought conditions near record highs and the lack of broad-based participation in the rally create fertile ground for a swift 2-4% correction at the first sign of trouble. Key profit-taking levels for the S&P 500 stand at 6,330 and 6,410. If these are breached to the downside, selling could accelerate toward 6,280. For the Nasdaq 100, watch the 23,200-23,800 range closely.
In summary, the market remains in an euphoric phase but is becoming increasingly jittery — a time for quick, agile decisions and constant risk control. Now is not the moment to "fall in love" with positions: key profits are earned through fast profit-taking and tactical speculation on corporate drivers and headline news.
