The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD instrument has remained unchanged for several months, which is quite encouraging. Even during the formation of corrective waves, the structure stays intact, allowing for accurate forecasting. It is worth noting that wave patterns do not always follow textbook examples.

The construction of the upward trend segment continues, and the news background is mostly not in favor of the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to boost budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these goals have yet to be achieved. Trump's "One Big Law" will increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars, and the president continues to raise tariffs and introduce new ones. The market has responded rather critically to the first six months of Donald Trump's term, despite 3% GDP growth in the second quarter.

At this stage, it can be assumed that wave 4 has been completed. If that is the case, then the formation of impulse wave 5 has begun, with potential targets extending up to the 1.2500 level. Admittedly, wave 4 may still evolve into a more extended five-wave corrective structure, but I am basing the analysis on the most probable scenario.

The EUR/USD pair rose by several dozen points on Wednesday, but the movement range remains limited. This week's empty news calendar does not give market participants much to work with. However, it's not entirely devoid of news. There is a lack of economic data, apart from yesterday's ISM Services PMI, which only added to the U.S. dollar's troubles. It was the fourth consecutive major economic indicator showing negative effects from Trump's policies—following Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and the ISM Manufacturing Index. So, while some indicators are indeed improving under Trump, the downside cannot be ignored.

A new week brought new tariffs. Trump increased import tariffs for Brazil and South Korea, as well as for a list of countries that previously paid nothing into the U.S. Treasury. On August 12, another escalation in the U.S.-China conflict may occur, and Trump could also raise tariffs on India in the coming days as a pressure measure against Russia. The U.S. president has also announced tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which he had previously mentioned. Based on these developments, I believe the global trade war is still gaining momentum. Confidence in the U.S. government is gradually declining due to its protectionist policies and attempts to influence even independent government bodies. The ever-growing number of tariffs is another factor discouraging dollar buyers. In my view, the market will continue to reduce demand for the U.S. currency, and the wave structure fully supports this scenario.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave pattern remains fully dependent on the news background, particularly on Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The target range for this trend segment may reach up to the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets around 1.1875 (corresponding to 161.8% Fibonacci extension) and higher. The formation of wave 4 is presumably complete, making now a favorable time for buying.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you're unsure about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.