Analysis of Tuesday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair declined rather significantly on Tuesday. While the pound's drop began somewhat sluggishly, in the evening, Donald Trump finally decided to help the U.S. dollar. The U.S. President stated that he no longer intended to fire Jerome Powell and did not plan to keep the 145% tariffs on China in place for an extended period. Presumably, Trump meant that the 145% tariffs would not remain in force if a trade agreement with China were signed. And as we know, negotiations have either not started or are being conducted in complete secrecy. We can only judge the progress of talks with all countries based on statements from the White House. And these statements often do not reflect reality. As a result, the dollar gained strength on Tuesday, but if it drops today, we won't be surprised.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

Two trading signals were formed in the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, but overall, market movements remain chaotic and driven by panic. In essence, all strong price swings we are currently observing are the result of statements and decisions made by Trump. No one can predict what the U.S. President will say today. Therefore, we can only draw conclusions based on the technical picture. However, the technical picture becomes highly ambiguous and overtly contradictory under Trump's influence.

Trading Strategy for Wednesday:

In the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have started a downtrend a long time ago, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, so the British pound continues to crawl steadily upward. One day of decline is not a trend. Thus, the future movements of the pair depend solely on the American President and his decisions—and nothing else.

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may trade south for a while as the first signs of easing tensions in the global trade war have started to emerge. However, a consistent flow of news about trade conflict de-escalation is required for the dollar to show substantial growth.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels for Wednesday are 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. Business activity indices for April's services and manufacturing sectors are scheduled for release in both the UK and the U.S. on Wednesday, but these reports could introduce even more volatility into the pair's movements.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.