Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, and even fewer are deemed important. The only report that deserves attention is the third estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of last year. Markets expect the U.S. economy to have grown by 2.3%. If the actual figure comes in lower, the dollar may come under selling pressure, although likely not significantly, as the macroeconomic backdrop is currently not the primary focus for traders. The U.S. will also release jobless claims data, but this report is far from crucial and rarely deviates from forecasts. The publication calendars for Germany, the EU, and the UK are empty today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, a range of speeches by representatives from the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank can be noted. The most important one is Christine Lagarde's speech, but it's worth remembering that all three central banks held meetings recently, so it's unlikely that the sentiment of the central banks or their leaders has changed in just a week or two. In any case, Lagarde's speech is scheduled for the evening, so it will not affect traders during the day, even in theory.

General Conclusions:

During the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue the declines that have been building in recent weeks. Both pairs have consolidated below their ascending channels, and the Fed's stance allows the dollar to reclaim part of the ground it lost unfairly. Of course, no one knows when Trump will announce new trade tariffs or what they entail, but this factor cannot continuously drive the dollar lower. The British pound appears more prone to a sideways movement (flat) than a downward correction.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.